Table of Contents
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is at 19 points
“President Joe Biden‘s job approval rating is at 19 points, indicating that his rating for managing the economy and immigration is on the lower side of his career. Many Americans are saying that his position as President has worsened, with three-fourths believing he has aged significantly and former President Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect. All of these pose serious challenges for Biden in his re-election campaign.
In the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, 44% of Americans say that their economic situation has worsened under President Biden, the highest for any president in ABC/Post polls since 1986. Only 37% approve of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. Biden’s handling of the economy is still met with skepticism by a significant portion, with only 30% approving.
When it comes to handling immigration at the US-Mexico border, Biden’s approval rating is even lower at 23%. In terms of intensity of sentiment, 20% strongly approve of his handling of the issue, while 45% strongly disapprove. Furthermore, 74% say he is too old for another term, a 6-point increase since May. This survey conducted by Langer Research Associates for ABC also shows that concerns about Trump being too old have increased, but only up to 50%.
Biden’s favorability rating is so low that if there were a government shutdown at the end of the month, 40% say they would mainly blame him and the Democrats in Congress, while 33% would blame the Republicans in Congress, even for a budget standoff leading to a GDP-threatening default.
Trump has made significant improvement
On the other hand, Trump has made significant improvements. When he left office in January 2021, 38% approved of his job as President, which is now roughly equivalent to Biden’s rating. Currently, when looking back, 48% say they approve of Trump’s performance during his presidency, which matches his peak as President. However, there is a substantial portion – 49% – who now disapprove, which is less than when he left the White House, by less than 60%.
The comparison with Biden could be a factor. 56% of Americans who disapprove of Biden’s job performance say that, in retrospect, they approve of Trump. It’s also worth noting that Trump has a much broader interparty support, with 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents endorsing his potential 2024 candidacy, again similar to previous results, and significantly ahead of his opposition. Ron DeSantis has 15% support, down from 25% in May (using slightly different question wording). All others are in single digits.
In a hypothetical matchup for November 2024, Trump receives 51% support while Biden gets 42%, a 3-point increase for Trump and a 2-point decrease for Biden, statistically unchanged from the February ABC/Post poll.
Elections
These early thoughts play a role in the preliminary election priorities. A notable 62% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents say that the party should nominate someone other than Biden in 2024; just a quarter back Biden. The desire for a different candidate is high at a statistically similar level to last year’s prior results (56 to 58%).
If not Biden, then who is an open question. In an open-ended question, 8% mention Kamala Harris, 8% mention Bernie Sanders, and 7% mention Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as their preference, while other mentions are in single digits. “Someone else” comes in at 20%.
It’s also worth mentioning that Trump’s widespread interparty support is even more pronounced; 54% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents endorse him for a 2024 GOP nomination, again similar to prior results and significantly ahead of his opposition. Ron DeSantis has 15% support, down from 25% in May (using slightly different question wording). All others are in single digits.
In the hypothetical matchup for November 2024, Trump receives 51% support while Biden gets 42%, a 3-point increase for Trump and a 2-point decrease for Biden, statistically unchanged from the February ABC/Post poll.
There has been little change from the most recent ABC/Post poll, where the race was 49-42% (again with slightly different, though comparable, question wording). Nevertheless, given Trump’s lead of more than 50%, and a close contest in other polls, it’s worth keeping a close eye on this.
Various factors can play different roles
Various types of factors can play different roles. Biden’s poor performance rating, economic dissatisfaction, immigration crisis, and doubts about his age are all relevant. These have been the subjects of recent news coverage, focusing on negative aspects of the president’s leadership.
Meanwhile, Trump has used his base to strengthen his position through claims of political persecution and enjoyed positive coverage of his GDP-leading status.
The order of questions can be a factor. In this early phase of the election cycle, ABC/Post polls for the primaries, questions about Biden and Trump’s performance, economic sentiment, and some other issues (Ukraine aid, abortion, and government shutdown) were asked before candidate preferences.
This is because these questions are more meaningful in the context of support for the candidate. Since many results are negative towards Biden, it suggests that he is lagging in support for 2024. However, these sentiments are real, consistently negative in recent surveys, and clearly highlight the challenges ahead for Biden.
Another potential factor is messaging. A hypothetical vote-choice question 14 months before the election does not make any predictions; it serves as an opportunity for individuals to express their preferences or disapproval of candidates. Biden is generally unpopular and doubts about his suitability for a second term are widespread; wherever they land a year or more from now, many Americans are currently voicing their discontent.
In one example of messaging, those who say that Trump should be barred from serving as president again by the U.S. Constitution, 18% still support him for 2024 compared to Biden’s 50%. These people are expressing their disapproval of Biden, not necessarily endorsing Trump.
In the sample’s context, this poll was conducted using the long-standing methodology of ABC/Post polls. Demographic results are specific. Thus, there are partisan biases; 25% of respondents self-identify as Democrats, 25% as Republicans, and 42% as Independents. Thirty-eight percent of Democrats or Democratic-leaning individuals lean towards the Democratic Party; 45% are Republicans or lean towards the GOP, which has been consistently released this year.
Furthermore, survey respondents say they voted in 2020, giving Biden a 50-46% margin over Trump, which is very close to the actual result of 51-47%.
Group
Results among those who report being registered to vote show Trump-Biden results of 52-42% are virtually identical. Some poll analysts focus on this group, even though it has been more than a year since registration, an activity that political campaigns work very hard to achieve. At this level, we focus on all adults’ voices, regardless of their current registration status.
Despite general dissatisfaction with Biden, some group-level results are noteworthy. Among them:
1. Only 50% of Biden’s support comes from racial and ethnic minority groups (similar to May), while Trump has garnered support from 32 to 43% in this group in this year’s ABC/Post polls. Among Hispanics, it’s a surprisingly even 50-44% Trump-Biden split, though with a small sample size.
2. Among individuals aged 18 to 35, Trump enjoys a modest 53-38% advantage (somewhat important in this sample size). However, this is in line with what it was in May and Trump had a statistically significant 50-43% lead in this group in February (though not by much).
3.Trump has gained 7 points among white males, who are a key demographic for him, and now holds a 61-34% lead over Biden. Among non-college-educated white males, he has increased his lead by 15 points and received 79% support.
4.Americans have continued to oppose the Supreme Court’s decision to effectively end the constitutional right to abortion by 64-30%. Trump is favored by critics of that decision, with 57-35% support over Biden. Strong supporters favor Trump by 81-16%.
5. Non-Hispanic white Catholics have seen fluctuations, often being a contentious group. They favored Trump over Biden 63-33% in February; this cooled in May and is now back at 66-32%.
The Economic Status
Those who report voting for Trump in 2020 are still overwhelmingly supportive, with 96% backing him. However, Biden has retained less of his 2020 supporters, with 88% still behind him. Among the rest, 7% now support Trump (up from less than 3% in February), others are undecided, support another candidate, or have no plans to participate.
Those who say they did not vote in 2020 have provided Trump with a 57-32% advantage. This was 52-31% in May.
Individual candidate preferences are strong in relation to economic sentiment. Among Americans who say Biden’s economic performance has worsened, Trump leads 84-12%. Among those with similar economic conditions – not worse but not better – it reaches 66-25% in favor of Biden-Trump. This trend is consistent among those with somewhat better economic situations as well.